The European Commission has significantly downgraded its 2026 growth forecast for the eurozone, citing the economic fallout from the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis as primary drivers. The latest Spring Economic Forecast projects eurozone GDP growth at just 1.1% in 2026, a 0.3 percentage point reduction from earlier estimates . This marks a sharp slowdown, with the conflict in the Middle East pushing energy prices higher and exacerbating inflationary pressures across the bloc.
The war has triggered a severe energy price shock, particularly affecting energy-dependent economies like Germany, where growth expectations have been halved due to the conflict . Business activity in the eurozone contracted in May at its fastest pace in over two and a half years, raising concerns about a potential recession . The downturn is attributed to rising energy costs, which have intensified inflationary pressures, with EU inflation now projected to reach 3.1% in 2026—a full percentage point higher than previously forecast .
Individual member states are experiencing varying impacts. Greece’s growth forecast for 2026 has been revised downward to 1.8% (from 2.2%), with inflation expected to rise due to the regional energy crisis . Austria is among the worst-performing economies, with growth projections trailing only Italy and Romania, reflecting broader pessimism about the EU’s economic outlook . The crisis has also heightened calls for additional fiscal support measures among member states, as the conflict shows no signs of resolution .