The May 7 Scottish Parliament elections will see voters elect all 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament, with polling indicating a competitive race. The latest Ipsos poll (fieldwork: 01-04 May 2026) projects the Scottish National Party (SNP) leading with 26% of the proportional representation (PR) vote, though this represents a 3-point decline from late March. Reform UK is polling at 18%, a 2-point increase, while the Scottish Greens (SGP) hold 17%, up 1 point. Labour follows at 15%, with the Liberal Democrats at 11% (+2) and the Conservatives at 10% (-3) .
The same Ipsos poll shows Scottish public opinion on independence remains closely divided, with 52% opposing and 48% supporting a referendum, reflecting a 2-point shift toward "No" since late March . The election has also seen Reform UK gain traction in areas like Falkirk by capitalizing on anti-migrant sentiment, a shift from Scotland’s traditionally more welcoming stance on asylum seekers .
Analysts suggest these elections could be pivotal for Labour, which risks falling to third place in Scotland, potentially undermining Keir Starmer’s leadership. The outcome may also signal broader trends in UK politics, including the rise of smaller parties like Reform UK and the Greens . Reporting from Scotland highlights how young voters are engaging with the election, with discussions on national identity and political priorities shaping their choices .