Mysterious 400,000 bet on Polymarket signals rising speculation over Putin's hold on power
A mysterious bet of $400,000 on Polymarket has ignited speculation that Vladimir Putin’s grip on power may be weakening faster than anticipated, as the Russian president faces the sharpest weekly drop in approval ratings since the invasion of Ukraine and intensifies his war rhetoric.
An anonymous trader on the crypto-prediction platform Polymarket wagered $400,000 on Putin’s removal from office before the end of 2026, a move that has drawn scrutiny over potential insider knowledge and the growing influence of geopolitical prediction markets . The bet, reported by Forbes, comes amid a broader trend of high-stakes wagers on global events, including wars, on decentralized platforms. Similar predictions have since surfaced in Greek media, where analysts at *Proto Thema* highlighted the bet as a contrarian signal, comparing Putin’s potential downfall to that of Nicolae Ceaușescu .
The Kremlin’s internal stability appears increasingly fragile. A VTsIOM poll conducted between June 22 and June 28 showed Putin’s approval rating plummeting to 66.9%, down from 70.4% the previous week—the steepest weekly decline since the war began . Finnish commentators have warned that dictators on the brink of collapse often resort to extreme violence, suggesting Putin may escalate repression or military actions to cling to power .
Putin has shown no signs of backing down. During a visit to the frontlines on July 3, he dismissed Ukraine’s battlefield achievements as “imaginary” and accused its leaders of being “play actors” . The same day, *Le Monde* reported that despite economic strain and public war-weariness, Putin has doubled down on demands in Ukraine, rejecting any diplomatic resolution . On the war’s anniversary, he also raised the specter of nuclear escalation, further alarming Western observers .
Kremlin elites, meanwhile, are reportedly turning on one another, with Putin striking back against perceived disloyalty—a dynamic some analysts describe as institutional paranoia . The Russian government has also intensified efforts to recruit students into the military, signaling desperation to sustain its war effort into a fifth year .
Whether the Polymarket bet proves prescient remains uncertain, but the convergence of plummeting approval ratings, elite infighting, and Putin’s defiant war posture suggests a Kremlin under unprecedented strain.
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observador · about 3 hours ago
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