Ken Paxton, the Trump-backed Texas attorney general, has defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a Republican primary runoff, marking one of the most significant upsets in recent GOP history. With 59% of precincts reporting by 8:45 p.m. on Tuesday, Paxton secured 63.2% of the vote to Cornyn’s 36.8%, according to the Associated Press, which called the race an hour after polls closed .
Paxton’s victory underscores Donald Trump’s enduring influence over the Republican Party, as the former president’s last-minute endorsement proved decisive in a race that pitted the party’s establishment against its grassroots base. Cornyn, one of the Senate’s most senior Republicans, had served four terms and was widely seen as a safe bet for renomination—until Paxton framed the contest as a referendum on loyalty to Trump and the party’s direction. "Tonight is the beginning of the fight to preserve every value we hold dear," Paxton told supporters, signaling a combative general election campaign against Democrat James Talarico, a state representative from Austin .
The outcome has sent shockwaves through the GOP, with Cornyn’s allies warning that Paxton’s polarizing profile—marred by legal scandals, an impeachment fight, and multiple corruption allegations—could jeopardize Republican hopes of holding the seat in November. Democrats, who have not won a statewide race in Texas in over three decades, now see an opening. Talarico, a progressive pastor and former teacher, has gained traction with a message of economic populism and social justice, positioning himself as a stark contrast to Paxton’s hardline conservatism. "Corrupt Ken," as Democrats have dubbed him, may energize the party’s base in a state where shifting demographics and suburban discontent have eroded Republican dominance .
Trump’s role in the race was pivotal. His endorsement came late in the runoff but galvanized Paxton’s campaign, which had struggled to overcome the baggage of his impeachment in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office. Despite these controversies, Paxton’s alignment with Trump’s "America First" agenda—particularly on immigration, election integrity, and opposition to federal overreach—resonated with primary voters. The Financial Times described the victory as evidence of Trump’s "ruthless" grip on the GOP, where loyalty to the former president now outweighs traditional metrics of electability .
The general election will test whether Paxton’s primary success translates into broader appeal. Cornyn, in his concession speech, acknowledged the voters’ decision but warned that the race could "complicate" Republican efforts to retain the seat. Meanwhile, outside spending in the primary exceeded $50 million, reflecting the national stakes of a contest that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate. With Texas’s 38 electoral votes and growing urban centers, the outcome may also offer a bellwether for the GOP’s ability to hold the state amid demographic shifts .
Paxton’s win arrives as Trump continues to reshape the Republican Party ahead of the midterms, where his endorsed candidates have prevailed in key races from Ohio to North Carolina. Yet the Texas result also highlights the risks of his strategy: a candidate dogged by legal troubles and ethical questions now faces a Democratic opponent who has already begun framing the race as a choice between "corruption and change." For a state that last elected a Democrat to statewide office in 1994, the November contest could defy decades of political precedent.