NATO leaders gather in Ankara as U.S. retrenchment tests alliance unity
NATO leaders will gather in Ankara on Tuesday for a two-day summit overshadowed by transatlantic tensions, as European allies scramble to demonstrate unity and compensate for U.S. retrenchment ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected demands for greater burden-sharing. The gathering, described by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as an effort to “make a case for NATO,” comes as Washington prepares to unveil a series of defense initiatives aimed at easing concerns over its reduced military footprint in Europe.
Rutte, speaking in late June during a visit to Washington, showcased what he called “The Trump Trillion”—a display of €1 trillion in additional defense spending by European allies and Canada since Trump first took office in 2017 . The NATO chief’s strategy to keep the alliance intact hinges on flattery and economic incentives, with a focus on boosting defense production and procurement deals to appeal to Trump’s transactional approach. Rutte is expected to unveil a “defense industrial revolution,” including tens of billions in new contracts, in an attempt to frame NATO as an economic asset for the U.S. as much as a security one.
European leaders are acutely aware of the stakes. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson warned that the summit convenes during a “turbulent time” for European security, with the war in Ukraine dominating the agenda . Sweden’s defense spending has more than doubled since 2021, and Kristersson reiterated the government’s ambition to reach a 5% GDP target by 2030. Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stressed the need for alliance unity, stating that NATO must send “a strong signal of long-term support for Ukraine” and deter Russia.
The summit’s focus on defense industrial capacity reflects a broader shift in NATO’s structure, often referred to as “NATO 3.0,” as the U.S. reviews its military posture in Europe. Washington has already finalized plans to reduce its presence, including the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany and the cancellation of planned relocations of long-range fires and air defense battalions . In response, European nations have accelerated their own military modernization, with a senior NATO commander noting that Europe has replaced most of the U.S. cuts within the alliance .
Yet the summit’s success is far from guaranteed. Trump has repeatedly criticized European allies for insufficient defense spending, calling NATO support “ridiculous” just days before the gathering . The alliance’s draft declaration, finalized by ambassadors on July 3, labels Russia a direct threat to Euro-Atlantic security and includes a €70 billion annual aid package for Ukraine for 2026 and 2027 . But lingering disputes—over Iran, Greenland, and tariffs—have strained relations, with the Atlantic Council’s Frederick Kempe describing transatlantic tensions as the greatest he has ever seen .
Türkiye, hosting the summit, stands to gain from the friction. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s warm ties with Trump and Ankara’s burgeoning defense industry have positioned Türkiye as a key player in NATO’s evolving dynamics. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, in a phone call with Erdoğan, expressed hope that the summit would strengthen allied unity, particularly in defense cooperation . Meanwhile, Poland’s foreign minister warned that the summit must signal unity to Moscow, cautioning against potential Russian provocations .
As leaders prepare to convene, the overriding question is whether NATO can bridge its divisions—or whether the alliance’s future will be defined by retreat, recrimination, and a Europe left to defend itself.
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