Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing coalition defies expectations in Italy’s partial municipal elections, securing key victories in Venice and Reggio Calabria and bolstering her position ahead of autumn parliamentary polls. The centre-right alliance, led by Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI), captured Venice with 20.12% of the vote—despite trailing the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) at 24.84%—as local civic lists split the opposition’s support, according to *La Repubblica* . In Reggio Calabria, the coalition’s outright win marks a sharp reversal from recent left-leaning referendums, with analysts calling the results a "lifeline" for Meloni’s national government, *Libération* reports .
Polling data underscores the coalition’s resilience. A Tecnè survey conducted on 21-22 May projects FdI at 29% for the European Parliament elections, a two-point lead over the PD (22%), while the far-right League (7%) and Forza Italia (9%) hold steady . The left-wing Five Star Movement (M5S) stagnates at 13%, with the Greens/Left Alliance (AVS) at 6%. Smaller centrist parties, including Azione and Italia Viva, hover at 3%, reflecting a fragmented opposition. Similar trends emerge in Termometro Politico and SWG polls, with FdI consistently above 28% and the PD unable to close the gap sources.
The municipal results contrast with earlier predictions of a leftist surge, particularly after the PD’s success in last month’s justice reform referendum. *Courrier International* describes Venice’s outcome as a "slap in the face" for progressives, who failed to capitalize on local grievances over tourism taxes and housing crises . *Der Standard* notes that Meloni’s coalition has "postponed its downfall," with the autumn parliamentary elections now shaping up as a referendum on her leadership .
Looking ahead, the coalition’s performance in larger cities like Venice—where the PD’s historic stronghold in the city centre held but failed to offset losses elsewhere—suggests Meloni’s strategy of consolidating right-wing support is paying dividends. However, the PD’s ability to retain 22-23% in national polls indicates a ceiling for the centre-right, leaving room for a potential leftist resurgence if opposition parties can unify. The European Parliament elections in June 2024 will serve as the next major test, with FdI’s dominance in Italy likely to strengthen Meloni’s influence in Brussels’ conservative bloc.