NATO leaders gathering in Ankara on Monday will confront a summit dominated by two existential questions: whether Europe can truly replace America’s shrinking role in the alliance and whether Donald Trump will accept the answer. With the 32-member summit opening in Turkey on 7 July, diplomats have finalised a declaration that labels Russia a direct threat to Euro-Atlantic security and pledges €70 billion ($80 billion) in annual military aid to Ukraine for 2026 and 2027, according to NATO ambassadors on Friday. The aid package, already agreed in draft texts, is designed to demonstrate that Europe has assumed Washington’s financial burden after Trump halted US support for Kyiv.
The pledge, which includes €30 billion each year from an EU loan and national commitments, was nearly derailed by Italy but approved by ambassadors ahead of the summit. “The financing from the European Union loan and the pledges they have made already mean they are on course to reach the 70 billion euros in each year,” a diplomat told AFP . Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend a leaders’ dinner on Tuesday but will not take part in the main sessions, reflecting NATO’s caution to avoid provoking Trump as his administration seeks to end the war.
Europe’s push for strategic autonomy is colliding with Trump’s demand for greater burden-sharing. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has spent weeks courting the US president, highlighting a €1 trillion increase in European and Canadian defence spending since 2017. “I want to show you what this president was able to achieve,” Rutte told reporters in late June, displaying boards emblazoned with “The Trump Trillion” . Yet Trump’s recent threats to reduce NATO support—including his claim that it is “ridiculous” for the US to maintain current levels—have left European capitals bracing for confrontation. “You can never eliminate the Trump factor,” a senior diplomat warned. “If he wakes up on the wrong side, that’s it.”
The summit’s agenda reflects Europe’s attempt to square the circle. French President Emmanuel Macron will hold bilateral talks with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has told Trump that Berlin is ready to take on greater responsibility. “Germany is prepared to take on greater responsibility for European security,” Merz said . Yet Macron has ruled out replacing US capabilities, instead proposing a new NATO capability model. “France is not going to replace US capabilities,” his office stated, “but European allies need to consider a new capability model for NATO” .
Turkey’s Erdoğan, meanwhile, stands to gain geopolitical capital from hosting the summit. Despite domestic crackdowns ahead of the gathering—including the arrest of 225 activists—Ankara has positioned itself as a bridge between Trump and European leaders. “Erdoğan will use the NATO summit as a showcase for Turkey’s burgeoning military industry,” noted *Expansión* . The alliance’s cohesion will be tested by budget disputes, with Spain resisting calls to raise defence spending and Poland warning that failure to meet the 5% GDP target could fracture NATO into “two or three parts” .
As leaders arrive in Ankara, the summit’s success hinges on whether Europe’s financial pledges can temper Trump’s scepticism—or whether his demands for unilateral concessions will overshadow the alliance’s future. “The NATO chief wants to avoid public disputes and showcase allied unity,” said Claudia Major of the German Marshall Fund . Yet with Trump’s unpredictability and Europe’s fragile consensus, the alliance faces its most precarious moment since the Cold War.
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