Baltic leaders warn Russia planning attacks on NATO infrastructure in Poland, Baltics

Baltic leaders warn Russia planning attacks on NATO infrastructure in Poland, Baltics
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VILNIUS, Lithuania — The presidents of Lithuania and Latvia warned on Wednesday that Russia is planning attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland, citing intelligence reports.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said the planning is taking place at the highest level in Moscow, targeting energy and transport infrastructure. "We are talking about energy and transport infrastructure, facilities where damage could... disrupt the functioning of the entire energy system," Nauseda said at a joint press conference in Vilnius with his Latvian counterpart, Edgars Rinkevics.

Rinkevics warned that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, all EU and NATO members, must be prepared for provocative actions by Russia as it seeks to "test" the alliance's mutual defense pact amid its war in Ukraine. "Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the alliance and European Union levels," he said.

The warnings are the latest in a series of alarms from leaders along NATO's eastern flank who suggest Russia may be trying to test the alliance as the Ukraine war drags on after more than four years. In late June, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a press conference that "various types of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months," calling the situation "very unstable."

Baltic and Polish officials have already linked Russia to several incidents, including arson, cyberattacks, and diversions on railway lines. The Lithuanian president said his country had strengthened protection of its transport and energy infrastructure in response to the threats.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov disputed the claims, calling them "just another fresh batch of scare stories designed to keep the brainwashing going and prepare the population for further militarization."

Located along the Baltic Sea and bordering Russia and its close ally, Belarus, Lithuania has been a key ally to Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Lithuania is NATO's highest security spender in relative terms, allocating 5.33% of its GDP to defense.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics similarly warned on Wednesday that, with Ukraine increasingly effective at putting pressure on Russia, Moscow might respond with provocations against NATO’s eastern flank. “Even without a complete Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the NATO and European Union levels,” Rinkevics said, referring to NATO’s common defense guarantee.

The three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—and Poland, all located on NATO’s eastern flank, have strengthened security around key transport and energy infrastructure in recent months in response to the Russian threat. The countries say they have long been targets of Russian hybrid attacks, a threat that has intensified since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the Lithuanian intelligence warning about Russia’s purported plans to launch attacks on infrastructure in the Baltics and elsewhere in Europe. “It’s a fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue the brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarization,” Peskov told reporters. “To do this, they need to create an enemy image on the other side, our side in this case,” he added.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski had issued a similar warning on Tuesday. According to him, Russia could be preparing a so-called "false flag" operation scenario, in which Ukrainian drones would be used. "Putin made a similar message about a month ago, stating that if Russia is attacked by a NATO member state, it will respond. Therefore, we suspect that he could prepare Ukrainian drones and use them to attack a NATO member state or Russia, so that he could then respond to this attack. Perhaps this is exactly the scenario he could be preparing, because he is in a desperate situation – he is losing," said Sikorski.

The warnings come as Russia is reportedly struggling to make gains in Ukraine. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said that Russia may seek to test NATO’s resolve through sabotage and hybrid attacks as its military struggles to make gains in Ukraine.

“We must be extremely prepared for the stage of the war in Ukraine where Russia no longer achieves victories and is unable to advance on the battlefield,” Rinkevics said. “The next few months, or even the next 12 months, will be crucial for Baltic security. We have already seen hybrid operations continuing for several years,” he added.

Nauseda said Wednesday that while Russia is currently incapable of launching a large-scale military attack against NATO member states, it could be preparing more limited operations capable of causing significant damage to critical infrastructure. He urged Lithuanians not to “be lulled by a summer mood and think that the war is happening somewhere far away”.

On Tuesday, Nauseda said intelligence assessments pointed to the possibility of targeted attacks against critical infrastructure in the region using both conventional and nonconventional means. He said Lithuania had recently strengthened security around key transport and energy infrastructure in response to the threat.

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