Trump threatens to scrap USMCA trade deal amid North American tensions
President Donald Trump has thrown North America’s trade architecture into doubt by declaring on Thursday that he may not renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the $2 trillion pact that replaced NAFTA in 2020 and remains the cornerstone of trilateral commerce.
Speaking in Washington, Trump said the six-year-old deal “comes up for renewal” and added, “I don’t know that I’m going to renew it.” He argued that the United States benefits more from access to Canadian and Mexican markets than it gains from their exports, singling out Canada’s 4 million barrels of daily crude oil shipments—about one-fifth of U.S. consumption—as a point of leverage . Both Ottawa and Mexico City have privately signaled willingness to make further concessions to keep the accord alive, but the president’s remarks suggest the agreement’s future is now in play.
The USMCA, negotiated during Trump’s first term and ratified in 2020, governs nearly $2 trillion in annual trade across North America. Its potential collapse would force Congress to revisit tariff schedules for automobiles, agriculture, and energy at a moment when global supply chains are already strained by rising protectionism. European diplomats in Washington report that the threat has deepened skepticism about U.S. reliability as an ally, with a June 10 survey showing European trust in American security guarantees at an all-time low .
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, faces the immediate challenge of managing a relationship with a president who has repeatedly tied trade access to migration policy and drug-war cooperation. In an interview published Thursday, Sheinbaum’s dressmaker in Mexico City noted the political symbolism of the president’s locally tailored wardrobe, underscoring how economic nationalism in Washington reverberates through daily life in Latin America .
Canadian officials have scrambled to respond after Trump threatened to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Detroit and Windsor, a project valued at $5.7 billion. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office said Wednesday that the bridge would proceed as scheduled, but the White House has not withdrawn its veto threat .
Analysts warn that a USMCA withdrawal could trigger retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly agricultural exports that rely on Canadian and Mexican buyers. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which lobbied aggressively for the original deal, has not commented publicly since Trump’s remarks, but industry groups are privately preparing contingency plans for a return to World Trade Organization tariff schedules.
Trump’s latest trade salvo follows a week of aggressive economic diplomacy, including new tariffs on Brazilian imports and a contentious EU-U.S. deal that left Brussels uneasy about future unpredictability. With the president’s 80th birthday celebrations planned for June 14, the timing underscores his willingness to use symbolic gestures to amplify substantive shifts in policy.
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