China warns Australia faces direct missile threat from Beijings military buildup

China’s growing arsenal of long-range and hypersonic missiles, coupled with its aggressive island-building in the South China Sea, now poses a direct missile threat to Australia, the country’s leading strategic think tank warned today.

In a report published on Sunday, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said Beijing’s rapid military modernisation had reached a point where it could deliver a direct missile strike on Australian soil. The assessment comes as tensions in the Indo-Pacific continue to escalate, with China’s military expansion showing no signs of abating.

The think tank highlighted China’s deployment of advanced ballistic and hypersonic weapons, which are capable of striking targets across the region with little warning. ASPI also pointed to China’s ongoing construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, which it said were being used to extend Beijing’s military reach and project power into waters claimed by multiple Southeast Asian nations.

“China’s military build-up is no longer a regional concern—it is a direct threat to Australia’s security,” the report stated. “The combination of long-range missiles, hypersonic technology, and forward-deployed bases significantly increases the risk of a direct strike on Australian territory.”

The warning follows years of escalating rhetoric between Beijing and Canberra, particularly over Australia’s alignment with the United States and its participation in joint military exercises in the region. China has repeatedly criticised Australia’s defence ties with Washington, accusing Canberra of adopting an aggressive stance toward Beijing.

ASPI’s report did not specify a timeline for when such an attack might occur, but it stressed that the threat was growing as China’s military capabilities expanded. The think tank called on the Australian government to accelerate its own defence modernisation, including investments in missile defence systems and long-range strike capabilities.

The assessment comes amid broader concerns about China’s military ambitions in the Pacific. Earlier this year, Beijing announced plans to expand its naval presence in the region, raising fears among neighbouring countries about its long-term intentions.

Australia’s Defence Minister is expected to respond to the report in the coming days, though no official statement had been issued as of Sunday afternoon. The government has previously committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, a move analysts say is partly in response to China’s growing assertiveness.

The ASPI report underscores the shifting security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, where China’s military expansion is increasingly viewed as a direct challenge to the stability of the region. With no immediate signs of de-escalation, the risk of conflict—whether intentional or accidental—remains a pressing concern for Australia and its allies.