Exiled former Russian PM Kasyanov says Putin misjudged Ukraine war, fears divide Kremlin elite
Mikhail Kasyanov, Russia’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004, publicly criticized President Vladimir Putin on Saturday for the invasion of Ukraine, calling it a miscalculation Putin refuses to acknowledge. In an interview with AFP in Paris, Kasyanov said Putin “made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,” relying on flawed intelligence reports that portrayed Ukraine as weak.
Kasyanov, who has lived in exile in Riga since 2022 and was designated a “foreign agent” by Moscow in 2023, said he remains in contact with members of Russia’s ruling elite. “Fear reigns there,” he stated. “Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does.” He noted divisions over how the conflict should conclude, with some seeking victory, others Putin’s defeat, and others simply an end to the fighting.
The former prime minister warned that Putin is emboldened by high oil prices and Western disunity over Ukraine, believing he can sustain the war without concessions. Kasyanov urged Western nations to apply “psychological pressure on the Kremlin” by uniting and supplying Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors ahead of an expected winter escalation in Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Among ordinary Russians, Kasyanov saw “no grounds for a revolt,” despite rising casualties and food prices, attributing this to decades of high inflation and economic hardship. He also dismissed Western fears of Putin, calling the Russian leader a “calculating cynic” rather than the “psychopath” he portrays himself to be .
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