Swedens inflation falls to 0.2% in July on energy price drop, core measure rises unexpectedly
Sweden’s inflation rate fell sharply in July, with the Consumer Price Index dropping to 0.2 percent from 0.7 percent in June, according to preliminary figures released by Statistics Sweden on Aug. 6. The CPIF measure, which excludes mortgage interest rate effects, declined to 0.7 percent from 1.3 percent in June, aligning with analyst expectations of 0.7 percent.
Mikael Nordin, a price statistician at Statistics Sweden, attributed the decline to a steep drop in energy prices. The low inflation was also influenced by a temporary fuel tax cut and a state subsidy for public transport monthly passes introduced on July 1. Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, targets a CPIF inflation rate of 2.0 percent.
A separate measure, CPIF-XE, which excludes energy prices, rose to 0.6 percent in July from 0.4 percent in June, defying market expectations of a decline to 0.3 percent. Andreas Wallström, chief forecaster at Swedbank, called the core inflation figure—CPIF excluding energy—the most significant development in the report. “Core inflation came in slightly higher than expected,” Wallström said in a comment to Svenska Dagbladet, adding that overall inflation remains very low, allowing the Riksbank to maintain its current stance.
Amanda Sundström, a strategist at SEB, noted that core inflation was significantly higher than both her bank’s and the Riksbank’s forecasts. “It is somewhat concerning that we have now seen unexpectedly high outcomes for three months in a row,” Sundström wrote, adding that this increases the risk of a rate hike by the Riksbank later this year, though she deemed a move at the next meeting on Aug. 20 unlikely.
Torbjörn Hållö, chief economist at the Swedish Trade Union Confederation, emphasized that the 0.7 percent CPIF figure remains well below the Riksbank’s 2 percent target. “On paper, far below the target,” Hållö wrote on X, cautioning that current distortions from tax and seasonal effects make details crucial. More comprehensive and final July data will be published by Statistics Sweden next week.
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