
Moody’s downgraded Poland’s sovereign credit rating from A2 to A3 on Friday, shifting its outlook from negative to stable, according to reports from *wnp.pl* .
Heiko Peters, Moody’s lead analyst for Poland, warned that further downgrades could follow if the government loosens fiscal rules instead of curbing debt. The stable outlook assumes Poland will adhere to fiscal constraints, with public debt stabilizing at 70-75% of GDP under EU methodology, distinct from Poland’s domestic thresholds of 55% and 60% of GDP, Peters said .
Moody’s projects Poland’s public finance deficit will remain near 7% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, with debt rising from 59.7% of GDP in 2025 to 68.9% in 2027. The agency noted political tensions, including conflicts between the government and president, and upcoming 2027 parliamentary elections as obstacles to fiscal discipline. It also flagged off-balance-sheet borrowing by state-managed funds, which weakens fiscal rule effectiveness .
Peters stated that legislative initiatives to modify or abolish fiscal rules—potentially after the 2027 elections—could trigger downward pressure on the rating. Moody’s expects significant fiscal consolidation only post-elections, with debt stabilizing near 70-75% of GDP by the decade’s end .
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