Prediction market Kalshi bans ex-US congressman Santos for alleged insider trading

The online prediction market platform Kalshi permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos on Friday after its compliance department found reasonable cause to believe he engaged in insider trading and market manipulation, the company announced Monday.

Kalshi said Santos placed bets between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, then made public statements—some false or misleading—to influence the price of those contracts. The platform imposed a $71,356 penalty and barred Santos from direct or indirect access to its services. Santos profited $17,839 from the trades before the ban, according to Kalshi’s disciplinary filing .

The day before the address, Santos posted on X that he would be in the gallery for the speech. During the event, he wrote that he was instead at an airport watching on television, adding, “FML.” Kalshi’s enforcement team froze his account and referred the case to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which settled with Santos in June for $35,000—$17,500 to return his profit and a matching fine. His lawyer stated at the time that Santos settled “without admitting the Commission’s allegations, findings or conclusions” .

Santos, a former Republican congressman, was expelled from the U.S. House in 2023 following an ethics investigation. He pleaded guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024 and was sentenced to seven years in prison. Trump commuted his sentence in 2025 after Santos served 84 days, calling him a “rogue” but praising his Republican voting record .

Kalshi also reported the case to the U.S. Department of Justice in June after detecting unusual account activity, a source previously told Reuters . Santos had previously promoted Kalshi’s rival Polymarket but was dropped by the platform once regulators began scrutinizing his behavior.

An email seeking comment from Santos on Monday was not immediately returned. In March, he addressed the controversy on his podcast, saying, “I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are” . On social media, he sarcastically thanked Kalshi for the ban, writing, “Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for 💋” .