Iran began a six-day state funeral on Friday for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in US-Israeli airstrikes on 28 February, as authorities in Tehran warned Washington and Jerusalem against any provocations during the mass mourning that will draw up to 20 million people.

The body of the late leader arrived in Tehran’s prayer complex late Thursday, kicking off processions that will move through Qom and Iraq before burial in Mashhad on 9 July . Iranian officials said between 15 and 20 million mourners are expected in the capital alone for the three-day tribute beginning Saturday, with millions more across Iraq and Iran . The ceremonies are designed to showcase the Islamic Republic’s unity and resilience four months after Khamenei’s death.

Tehran has framed the funeral as a red line. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed an “immediate powerful response” to any threat against Iranian leadership or territory, citing the 2026 Islamabad memorandum and warning Israel would be “schooled” if it defied Washington . Iran’s joint military command separately warned all oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to use approved routes or face a “forceful response,” escalating pressure on global shipping days after transit numbers quadrupled following a fragile US-Iran ceasefire .

Behind the pageantry, power dynamics are in flux. Reports indicate the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained out of public view, while Iranian hardliners are using the funeral to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic lever Tehran refuses to relinquish despite ongoing indirect talks with the US in Doha . Analysts describe the ceasefire as an unstable equilibrium, with Washington seeking phased release of $6 billion in frozen Qatari assets and Tehran demanding immediate access .

Regional actors are reacting cautiously. Turkey’s ruling party warned foreign intervention in Iran would worsen crises, singling out Israel’s role in destabilising the region . Meanwhile, Qatar continues its mediation role, with the emir discussing US-Iran talks and bilateral ties with Syria’s president .

Once the mourning ends, the funeral’s political message will be measured against the resumption of negotiations—and the fragile calm in the Gulf.

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