Europe may need gas prices above 100 to secure winter LNG amid Middle East disruptions: Goldman Sachs

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Europe may need gas prices above 100 to secure winter LNG amid Middle East disruptions: Goldman Sachs
Current story
EU gas storage at 62% as winter target slips amid Hormuz closure and price surge
4 days agoContinuation

Europe may need gas prices above 100 to secure winter LNG amid Middle East disruptions: Goldman Sachs

Current story

EU gas storage at 62% as winter target slips amid Hormuz closure and price surge

4 days ago

Continuation

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Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr said in a Sunday note that European gas prices may need to rise above €100 per megawatt-hour in December to secure enough liquefied natural gas supplies for winter storage, as disruptions in the Middle East persist. The analysts stated that current price levels, with Dutch TTF front-month futures at over €65 per MWh last week, would not suffice to divert sufficient LNG from Asia if Hormuz Strait supply constraints extend into 2027 .

Northwest European gas storage is projected to reach 51% capacity by the end of August, 3.4 percentage points below Goldman Sachs’ baseline scenario, according to the note. The bank’s base case assumes a December TTF price of €50 per MWh, but the analysts now estimate a 110% increase could be required under prolonged Middle East export disruptions .

Norway, now Europe’s largest gas supplier following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, aims to sustain production and exports at current levels until at least 2035, Energy Minister Terje Aasland said in a Reuters interview. Aasland emphasized the Barents Sea’s role in meeting European demand, noting that Norway would develop Arctic resources regardless of EU policy, as gas could be exported globally as LNG from Equinor’s Melkøya plant . Equinor CEO Anders Opedal added that rejecting Arctic oil and gas would only harm European energy security, as the company could redirect supplies to global markets .

Equinor and Aker BP announced a new North Sea gas and condensate discovery near the Balder field, with preliminary recoverable reserves estimated at 0.1 to 2.1 million standard cubic meters of oil equivalent, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate reported. The well was drilled 16 kilometers northwest of Balder and 205 kilometers west of Stavanger, with licensees reviewing further exploration potential .

Six EU member states have called for September discussions on taxing oil companies’ windfall profits, according to a Reuters report . Meanwhile, Equinor signed a 15-year deal to supply Germany’s Uniper with over 30 terawatt-hours of gas annually starting in 2027 .

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