Italys population to shrink by nearly 4 million by 2050, ISTAT projects
Italy’s population will shrink by nearly 4 million by 2050, falling from 58.9 million at the start of 2025 to 55 million, according to new projections released Monday by the national statistics bureau ISTAT. By 2080, the population is expected to drop further to 45.8 million, a decline of over 13 million from current levels .
The decline is driven by a negative natural population growth, with deaths outpacing births. In 2025, Italy recorded 355,000 births—the lowest since World War II—while the fertility rate stood at 1.14 children per woman, ISTAT reported. Births are projected to remain stable until 2030 before falling to 335,000 by 2050, while deaths are expected to rise from 652,000 in 2025 to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as the post-war generation ages .
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has prioritized boosting the birth rate since taking office in 2022, appointing a dedicated minister to address the issue. However, the downward trend has continued under her government, with ISTAT noting that immigration can only partially offset the decline .
The demographic shift will also reshape Italy’s age structure. The share of people aged 65 or over is projected to rise from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% by 2050, while the working-age population (15-64) will decline from 63.4% to 55.3%. ISTAT warned that this will pose “new challenges to the economic system and welfare” .
Regional disparities will widen, with southern Italy experiencing the steepest losses. Its population is forecast to fall from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050, while central and northern regions will see a more modest decline. Northern Italy is the only area expected to grow slightly in the short term, from 27.5 million in 2025 to 27.7 million by 2030, before declining to 24.2 million by 2080 .
ISTAT’s report also projects that by 2050, childless couples will outnumber those with children, with families with children declining from 7.5 million to 5.8 million. The shift is expected to occur first in northern Italy by 2038 .
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