IMF chief says global economy withstood Iran war energy shock better than feared ahead of G20
The global economy has weathered the energy shock triggered by the Iran war better than initially feared, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Tuesday in Nantahala, North Carolina, ahead of next week’s G20 finance ministers’ meeting.
Speaking to reporters, Georgieva said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil trade—had less severe consequences than anticipated due to a combination of factors. These included countries tapping into oil and gas reserves, increased energy production outside the Gulf region, reduced overall energy demand, expanded renewable energy capacity, and a partial return to coal-fired power generation in some areas .
The IMF chief described a “tug-of-war” between the negative supply shock from the Gulf and the economic boost from artificial intelligence investments, which have supported corporate profits and consumer spending in the U.S. and prompted other countries to build data centers and ramp up AI hardware production .
Georgieva warned that risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside, citing rising fiscal pressures in some countries, as evidenced by higher bond yields and stalled disinflation. She urged all nations to address fiscal challenges with credible plans to ensure sustainable debt and deficit trajectories, while central banks must remain committed to price stability mandates .
The IMF did not release new growth forecasts on Tuesday. In July, the organization had revised its 2026 global growth projection downward to 3.0 percent, with Germany’s outlook cut to 0.7 percent. The World Bank and OECD had previously slashed their global growth forecasts due to the Iran war .
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