Europe braces for winter energy crisis as wars disrupt oil and gas flows: 50 million face heating or food choice
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9 days · 8 summary articles
Europe is bracing for another surge in energy bills as the eight-month U.S.-Iran war and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine tighten global fuel supplies, with restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil and gas exports flow—keeping markets on edge. Petrol prices in the EU hit a record €2.10 per liter on Sept. 28, while residential electricity costs averaged 34% higher in the first half of 2025 than in 2019, with wholesale prices projected to rise 25% year-on-year in the second half of 2026 .
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned ahead of this week’s informal meeting of EU energy ministers in Dublin that 50 million Europeans could face a choice between heating and food this winter. “We have millions of citizens who basically, at the end of the month, will have to choose between freezing or being hungry because they cannot pay the bills,” he told the Financial Times .
The crisis has strained transatlantic relations after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to ban diesel exports to lower domestic pump prices ahead of November midterms. European diplomats, speaking anonymously to POLITICO, described U.S. pressure to release strategic diesel reserves as “blackmail” and a broader security concern . Gas prices in Europe have soared above €80 per megawatt hour this month, pushing coal-fired power to become cheaper than gas for the first time in years, with analysts projecting coal may remain the cheaper option through 2028 .
In Ireland, Electric Ireland raised residential electricity prices by 8% and gas by 7.7% in July, the first increases since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The wars in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted 20 million barrels of daily oil flow—one-fifth of global consumption—and 20% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE, which typically transit the Strait of Hormuz .
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