The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on Thursday that El Niño has officially begun in the tropical Pacific, warning that the warming cycle could reach historic intensity and intensify extreme weather worldwide over the coming months. The agency said conditions for El Niño developed over the past month, marked by above-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Forecasters now estimate a 63% chance that the event will become “very strong” between November and January, potentially rivaling or exceeding the record El Niño of 1997, which triggered heatwaves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires costing billions of dollars .
Scientists said the phenomenon is unfolding in a Pacific Ocean already warmed by climate change, amplifying its global impact. “El Niño is here, and it will likely turbocharge extreme weather across the planet,” said NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in a statement released Thursday. The agency noted that sea surface temperatures in the key Niño-3.4 region have risen sharply in recent months, a hallmark of the climate pattern that typically raises global average temperatures in the year after its onset .
International meteorological services echoed the warning. Météo-France said the event could push equatorial Pacific temperatures more than 2°C above average between November and January, a threshold associated with severe global impacts . Germany’s Der Standard reported that the phenomenon brings “extreme weather and a possibly record-high global average temperature,” while Austria’s ORF noted simply: “El Niño is already underway” .
Public health authorities also sounded alarms. The World Health Organization reported Thursday that extreme heat has killed more than 200,000 people in Europe over the past four years, noting that climate change is turning heatwaves into a recurring crisis that causes largely preventable deaths . WHO officials said the very old, the very young, and people with pre-existing conditions are most at risk as dehydration, heatstroke and worsening chronic illnesses drive mortality.
Climate scientists stressed that this El Niño arrives on top of a planet already warmed by fossil fuel emissions. “We are looking at a supercharged climate system,” said a researcher at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. “Even if this El Niño peaks in late 2026, its effects will ripple through 2027, pushing global temperatures to new records and intensifying droughts in Australia, floods in South America, and heatwaves across Asia and Africa.” The agency added that the combination of El Niño and long-term warming could make 2026 the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024, which was already the warmest since industrialization .
2 further sources not geolocated