Many former Kamala Harris aides and donors believe she may ultimately stay out of the 2028 presidential race.
Axios surveyed eight former aides and advisers: five said she likely wont run, two put it at 50-50, and only one expected her to run. Some argue Harris is doing only the bare minimum to remain in the conversation rather than actively preparing a campaign.
One former aide described Harris as a realist and an astute political observer, aware that another campaign could become focused on her 2024 defeat.
Harris, however, remains genuinely undecided and is continuing to campaign for Democrats and speak with party officials ahead of the midterms.
Source: Axios
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le monde · about 5 hours ago

Many ex-aides to Harris betting against a 2028 run Many of those who know Kamala Harris best think she ultimately wont run for the White House in 2028.Why it matters: What the former vice president decides to do is one of the biggest X factors in the next presidential contest: Early polls suggest Harris is the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee, and if she opted out, it would scramble the primary.Zoom in: Over the past year, a surprisingly large number of former aides, surrogates and donors to Harris have told Axios they believe she wont launch another campaign.They argue that the moves shes making — hitting the trail for midterm candidates, going on the podcast circuit, and writing a book — might make her look like a contender-in-waiting, but actually amount to her simply trying to maintain influence.Harris has said publicly and privately she hasnt made up her mind yet, and some of her former aides concede they could be wrong — or could even be "wishcasting" because they dont want her to pursue another bid.This week, we surveyed eight former Harris aides and advisers, including those who worked for her at a senior level, to get their most up-to-date read. Only one thought Harris probably will run. Two said its a coin-flip, and five said she likely wont. Heres why:Shes doing "the bare minimum" to stay in the 2028 conversation, as one past aide put it. Harris former staffers argue that if she were gung-ho about running shed be hiring more, traveling more, and inserting herself into policy debates more often.Shes a rational actor. Former aides say Harris is well aware of the hurdles that would await her if she ran again. "Shes a realist and an astute political observer, and she knows her candidacy could get bogged down in a 2024 rearview mirror," said a second former aide.The money might not be there. Many high-dollar donors are still furious about Harris loss and dont want her to run again. Top Democratic donor Reid Hoffman said last week that shed face "a very challenging path" in 2028. Some of her former financial backers are signaling support for other potential candidates, such as Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.She isnt an egomaniac. Sure, this is self-serving. But multiple people who worked for Harris say she lacks the "sociopathic" belief — their words, not ours — that its she and she alone who should be president.Some tea leaves suggest shes lukewarm on running. Harris effectively gave up control of her @KamalaHQ social media account, and bought an $8 million house in Malibu with her husband. Also, her top aide Kirsten Allen left her team recently, though Harris still speaks with her.What theyre saying: A former Harris aide connected to Axios by her current team put the odds of another run at "50-50," saying the former VP "is a very methodical decision-maker" who will weigh "the moment that were in."This former aide pushed back on the notion that money could be a problem, pointing to Harris massive email fundraising list and arguing that high-dollar donors wont determine the next nominee. They also said her team doesnt need to be bigger when the focus is on the midterms."There will be a lot of people who will feel a lot of urgency to announce as soon as possible," the former aide said. "I think the vice president doesnt necessarily have to be on that timeline."The lone former Harris staffer who told us they expect her to run gave it a "55 chance," noting that Harris has been ramping up her calls to Democratic officials and activists."I think theres a lot of wishcasting that maybe Kamala will come to her senses and not do it," this person said.Harris definitely is keeping the door open to another bid, including by gearing up to campaign this fall for battleground candidates such as Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and Nevada gubernatorial hopeful Aaron Ford.But many former aides who think Harris would be a good president say they dont want her to run again because they seriously doubt she could win, given her record. One way to view their arguments: Theyre trying to persuade her to stay out of the race.David Plouffe, Harris 2024 senior adviser, was blunt about the headwinds she would face in a third national campaign, even as he acknowledged shed begin in an enviable position."Her strongest day will be her first day in the campaign," Plouffe told "Pod Save America," predicting Harris support likely would erode as the race developed.The bottom line: People who talk to Harris say shes genuinely undecided about 2028, but political insiders will keep scrutinizing her every move for signs of what shell do next. During a recent podcast interview, she told former soccer star Megan Rapinoe: "I dont know how to live and not serve."Axios Alex Thompson contributed to this report.
axios · about 5 hours ago