Poland’s public debt is projected to exceed 55% of GDP by 2028, triggering automatic spending restrictions under national fiscal rules, according to government forecasts published in a debt management strategy for 2027–2030. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański’s projections show net public debt rising to 54.7% of GDP in 2027, 57.4% in 2028, and 58.1% in 2029 before easing to 57.3% in 2030 .
The breach of the 55% threshold would activate statutory mechanisms requiring the government to eliminate the budget deficit or reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. Measures include freezing public sector wage growth, capping pension indexation to inflation, implementing a fiscal adjustment program, reviewing state expenditures and tax regulations such as VAT, and imposing limits on local government budgets .
The 2027 budget draft, adopted by the cabinet, anticipates revenues of 696.4 billion zł and expenditures of 977.6 billion zł, resulting in a planned deficit of 281.2 billion zł .
