Intesa Sanpaolo launched a €30.6 billion all-share and cash bid on Monday for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), escalating a weekend bidding war that now pits Italy’s largest lender against rival Banco BPM and sets the stage for the country’s biggest banking consolidation in decades.
The unsolicited offer values MPS at €1.6 Intesa shares plus €1 in cash per MPS share, a 12.5% premium to MPS’s closing price on 5 June. If completed, the deal would create a €126 billion-asset group with a pro-forma market capitalisation of €120 billion, making it Europe’s second-largest bank by market cap after BNP Paribas. Intesa expects to close the transaction by December 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.
The move follows Sunday’s announcement by Banco BPM that it was exploring a “merger of equals” with MPS, a plan that would have created a €50 billion-market cap lender. Intesa’s counterbid, approved by its board late on Sunday, pre-empts Banco BPM’s approach and signals Rome’s determination to consolidate the fragmented Italian banking sector under national champions.
To address competition concerns, Intesa will sell a ring-fenced MPS entity—comprising the brand, 635 branches and most central functions—to Unipol Assicurazioni for €3.0–3.5 billion in cash. Unipol plans to merge this entity with Banca BPER, Italy’s fourth-largest lender, creating a new “Banca Monte dei Paschi” with over 2,600 branches and a proposed €2.5 billion capital increase. Intesa will retain Mediobanca and a smaller MPS unit, capturing roughly 80% of the combined MPS+Mediobanca net profit from 2025.
Intesa also disclosed a €3.01% strategic stake in Assicurazioni Generali, a purely financial and temporary holding that would allow it to continue using the equity method after the MPS deal, mirroring Mediobanca’s existing participation. The board’s approval of the Generali stake underscores Intesa’s broader ambition to strengthen its wealth-management and advisory franchises across Europe.
Analysts see the bid as a defensive play to fend off foreign encroachment while accelerating Intesa’s strategic targets five years ahead of schedule. “The combined group would surpass our 2029 plan on a pro-forma basis,” an Intesa spokesperson said. The transaction would also vault Intesa past UniCredit to become Italy’s undisputed banking leader.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has publicly backed the consolidation wave, tapping fashion and media magnates to bolster domestic champions. The government’s blessing, combined with Intesa’s track record of successful integrations, suggests regulatory hurdles may be lower than in past cycles.
MPS’s board said it would “carefully evaluate” Intesa’s proposal, while Banco BPM confirmed it remains open to discussions. With €30.6 billion on the table and rival bids in play, Italy’s banking future is being written in real time.