Global markets were mixed on Friday as investors balanced optimism over a potential Middle East peace deal and strong AI earnings against lingering caution ahead of key US inflation and growth data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%, reflecting the fragile sentiment as traders await Thursday’s US PCE and growth figures that could reshape expectations on inflation and Federal Reserve policy .

The European Central Bank’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey, released on Friday, showed a notable decline in inflation expectations among Eurozone consumers. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.5% in May, down from 4.0% in April, marking the first significant drop in months . The ECB’s survey also indicated that the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months had eased, though it remained elevated at 4.2%. Analysts at ING noted that the data could reinforce the ECB’s cautious stance on further rate cuts, despite growing market speculation of a September move.

In corporate bond markets, Elbridge Investments (Cyprus) Limited confirmed a 5.045% interest payment for bonds maturing between April 1 and June 30, 2026, tied to a 12-month EURIBOR rate of 2.245% . The payment underscores continued investor appetite for euro-denominated debt, even as broader market volatility persists.

Meanwhile, the US goods trade deficit widened to a 14-month high in May, surging to $93.1 billion as imports outpaced exports, according to data released on Friday . The deficit’s expansion, driven by a 2.8% rise in imports, has raised concerns about the sustainability of US growth and the potential impact on second-quarter GDP estimates. In contrast, Brazil’s current account deficit narrowed more than expected in May, falling to $2.1 billion from $3.4 billion in April, as export revenues strengthened .

Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting remains a focal point, with traders pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME Group data. The outcome of Thursday’s PCE report will be critical in determining whether the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge aligns with market expectations of easing price pressures. For now, the mixed signals from equities, bonds, and commodities suggest investors are bracing for a period of heightened volatility as the summer trading season begins.

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