Oil prices have fallen to pre-war levels for the first time since the US-Israel strikes against Iran, as partial resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz eases supply fears. The international Brent benchmark dropped to $72.44 per barrel in overnight trading on 25 June 2026, marking the first time it has traded below its level before the October 2023 attacks . Analysts noted the decline came as more than 20 million barrels of crude passed through the strait in recent days, restoring a critical artery for Gulf exports .

The price slide follows a four-month rally that saw Brent peak above $110 in March 2026, when Houthi attacks and Iranian threats had choked Hormuz traffic to a trickle. Shipping data show flows have now recovered to roughly 60% of pre-war volumes, still below the 2022 average but sufficient to avert the worst supply disruptions . “We are witnessing a textbook supply shock unwind,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. “The market is pricing in a return to near-normal conditions within weeks rather than months” .

The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Israel confirmed a soldier was killed in southern Lebanon on 25 June during an operation that violated a fragile ceasefire, underscoring the fragility of de-escalation efforts . Iran meanwhile accused NATO of complicity in the conflict, a claim dismissed by alliance diplomats in Brussels .

Economic fallout from the war continues to mount. Israel’s treasury estimates direct military costs at nearly $205 billion since October 2023, with the burden expected to linger through higher taxes and sovereign debt issuance . The government has begun talks with Switzerland and other partners to procure a second air-defense system, citing persistent missile and drone threats from multiple fronts .

With Hormuz flows still below historical norms, traders caution that any renewed disruption—whether from Houthi attacks or Israeli-Iranian escalation—could quickly reverse the recent price slide. For now, however, the market’s verdict is clear: the Brent price on 25 June 2026 is back where it stood before the first missiles struck Tehran and Jerusalem.

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Articles

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