A poll by the CBOS polling center shows Poland's liberal Koalicja Obywatelska leading with 28.1 percent, while right-wing PiS and Konfederacja are separated by just 0.4 points during a Constitutional Tribunal crisis.
The survey, conducted November 2-4 among 1,000 adults, found PiS at 15.8 percent, down 2.4 points from October, and Konfederacja at 15.4 percent, up 2.6 points.
Declared turnout rose to 77.7 percent, up 3.7 points from the previous month. CBOS attributed the increase to recent events surrounding the Constitutional Tribunal. The center wrote that these events "raised the political temperature, hence also the greater willingness to participate in elections."
Five parties would cross the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. Koalicja Obywatelska leads, followed by PiS and Konfederacja. Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej would receive 7.8 percent and Nowa Lewica 5.9 percent. Nowa Lewica recorded the largest gain of any party, rising 2.9 points.
Other parties fell below the threshold. Partia Razem received 3.4 percent, Rozwój Plus 2.8 percent, and Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 1.8 percent. Polska 2050 garnered 1.1 percent and Unia Centrum 0.2 percent. Some 14.2 percent of voters remained undecided, while 1.8 percent refused to reveal their preference.
The CBOS survey used computer-assisted telephone interviews for 80 percent of the sample and online interviews for 20 percent. Data on turnout and party preference were weighted.
A separate SW Research poll for Rzeczpospolita found 39.3 percent of respondents believed the Constitutional Tribunal dispute could increase support for President Karol Nawrocki. Another 31.3 percent said it would decrease. Regarding the government, 50.3 percent said support would decrease due to the escalation.
Another SW Research survey for Onet found Poles divided on whether the tribunal protests would unite the right. Some 37 percent saw chances of uniting PiS, Rozwój Plus and Konfederacja. The survey also named Konfederacja Korony Polskiej. Another 37.5 percent said the chaos would not bring the parties together.
Younger voters were more likely to see unity. Among those aged 25 to 34, 44 percent expected the right-wing parties to unite, while 29.9 percent disagreed. Among those aged 35 to 49, 42 percent said the parties would not unite.
On Friday, the Supreme Court rejected complaints by Constitutional Tribunal president Bogdan Święczkowski and vice-president Bartłomiej Sochański against orders removing them from judicial duties.
