Only one in ten Europeans now see the US as an ally, survey finds

Only one in ten Europeans now view the United States as an ally, according to a sweeping survey released on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), marking a historic low in transatlantic trust. The poll, conducted across 15 European countries, found that majorities in every surveyed nation doubt Washington would come to their defence in the event of an attack, underscoring a profound shift in European perceptions of American reliability.

The ECFR’s findings, published ahead of critical G7 and NATO summits in France and Turkey, reveal that just 10% of respondents across the continent now consider the US a partner, down from previous highs. In Germany, only 8% expressed confidence in the US as an ally, while in France the figure stood at 12%. The survey’s authors warn that this erosion of trust could reshape European security policy, pushing member states toward greater strategic autonomy. “Europeans are losing faith in the US as a security guarantor,” said Ivan Krastev, ECFR co-chair and lead researcher. “This isn’t just about politics—it’s about survival.”

The decline in confidence spans political and generational lines. In Poland, traditionally one of America’s strongest supporters in Europe, only 14% now see the US as an ally, down from 32% in 2020. Even in countries like Romania and the Czech Republic, where pro-American sentiment has historically run high, scepticism has surged. The survey suggests that 68% of Europeans believe their country would be safer pursuing independent defence strategies rather than relying on NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause.

Analysts attribute the shift to a combination of factors: the perceived unpredictability of US leadership, the fallout from America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and growing doubts about Washington’s commitment to European security amid rising global tensions. “Values need power, not powerlessness,” argued Sophie Eisentraut of the Munich Security Conference in a recent podcast, echoing a broader European sentiment that the US can no longer be counted on to uphold shared democratic principles .

The ECFR’s report arrives as European leaders prepare for high-stakes summits where the future of transatlantic relations will be a central topic. French President Emmanuel Macron has long advocated for “strategic autonomy,” while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has signalled a willingness to explore deeper EU defence integration. The survey’s timing underscores the urgency of these debates. “This is not just a poll—it’s a wake-up call,” said Mark Leonard, ECFR director. “Europeans are recalibrating their security calculus, and the US is no longer the default answer.”

With NATO’s 75th anniversary summit looming in July, the question is no longer whether Europe will act, but how quickly—and how far—it will go to fill the perceived void left by Washington.