European jet fuel prices have surpassed $200 per barrel as airlines prepare fare increases, while gas markets face a cold winter and shifting US policy.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), a barrel of jet fuel cost an average of $206.92 in Europe and CIS countries in the week ended October 23. The price rose 2.2 percent while Brent crude fell 4.8 percent. The crack spread, the difference between crude and refined fuel, jumped 15.7 percent that week. Global jet fuel prices have risen for four consecutive weeks.

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary predicted ticket price increases of around 20 percent next year, calling the scale of increases among European carriers unprecedented. Wizz Air chief executive József Váradi said the airline had hedged 82 percent of its fuel needs for the next six months at slightly above $102 per barrel. The current market price stands at $190 to $203 per barrel. Polish flag carrier LOT uses dynamic hedging tied to ticket sales, with a source estimating that 20 to 30 percent of 2026 fuel needs were covered, though the company did not confirm the figure.

European gas markets face heightened supply risks after forecasts showed a record-weak polar vortex, raising the odds of a cold winter. Slovakia's gas storage facilities are half-full, though suppliers say reserves and continued imports should meet winter demand. Replacing Russian gas remains unfinished business there. In Serbia, student leaders called for a long-term gas arrangement with Russia as the government's decision to cut excise taxes by 25 percent expires on November 8.

The EU is also preparing for US policy moves affecting energy supplies. QatarEnergy added 7 million tonnes to its US LNG portfolio in October. With the Golden Pass project in Texas, where it holds a 70 percent stake, Qatar will control 23.7 million tonnes annually by 2033. The purchases serve as an alternative to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy markets crumbled after signs showed the US will not ramp up its offensive against Iran in the near future. European carbon prices posted modest gains as investment funds increased their net length in futures and options to the most since August.

In the UK, energy bills are set to jump by nearly £470 in January to about £2,200 a year for a typical household. Inflation is forecast to peak at 4.4 percent in 2027 according to an FT survey of economists.