NATO leaders in Ankara face critical test as U.S.-Turkey F-35 breakthrough nears

NATO leaders in Ankara face critical test as U.S.-Turkey F-35 breakthrough nears
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NATO leaders gathering in Ankara on Monday for a two-day summit face their most critical test since the Cold War, as transatlantic tensions over burden-sharing and U.S. commitment threaten to overshadow urgent security challenges from Ukraine to the Middle East. The gathering, which begins Tuesday, comes as Washington and Ankara edge closer to a potential breakthrough on Turkey’s long-suspended F-35 fighter jet program, while European allies scramble to fill the void left by Washington’s shifting defense posture.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Sunday hailed a “historic” €70 billion ($80 billion) annual aid package for Ukraine agreed by alliance leaders, with similar commitments penciled in for 2027 . The pledge, confirmed by French President Emmanuel Macron’s office, marks a rare moment of unity as Kyiv intensifies calls for urgent Patriot interceptor supplies amid escalating Russian missile strikes . “The challenge of the summit will be for Europeans to take greater responsibility for their own security,” Macron’s office stated, underscoring the bloc’s push for strategic autonomy amid U.S. retrenchment.

Yet the summit’s cohesion remains fragile. U.S. President Donald Trump, who spoke to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the talks , has repeatedly questioned NATO’s value, demanding “loyalty” from allies who he claims exploit American largesse. His administration notified Congress on Friday of plans to approve a €613 million sale of U.S. jet engines to Turkey for its domestically developed KAAN fighter, a move seen as a conciliatory gesture to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan . The deal could pave the way for Ankara’s eventual return to the F-35 program, from which it was ejected in 2019 after purchasing Russia’s S-400 missile system—a move Washington deemed incompatible with NATO’s stealth technology .

Erdoğan, who will host the summit in Ankara for the first time since 2004, has positioned Turkey as a linchpin of NATO’s future, warning that the alliance’s outdated security policies are failing to address modern threats from cyber warfare to climate change . “The Euro-Atlantic security is at a historic turning point,” Erdoğan told NATO parliamentary speakers on Monday, citing “chaos instead of order” and “predictability decreasing” across the bloc’s eastern and southeastern borders .

The summit’s agenda reflects this turbulence. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to unveil plans for a €17 billion increase in Italian defense spending by 2028, while Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson described the gathering as taking place “at a turbulent time” for global security . Analysts warn that the alliance’s survival may hinge on whether it can transition from a U.S.-centric model to a more European-led structure. “There’s no going back to the old Atlantic Alliance,” said Jamie Shea, a former NATO deputy secretary-general. “NATO cannot be built around a central U.S. conventional and nuclear presence in Europe as in the past” .

As leaders convene, the specter of a single miscalculation looms large. A report in *London Business News* cautioned that escalatory risks—from Russia’s war in Ukraine to tensions over a potential U.S.-Iran deal—could pull NATO into its “gravest crisis” . With Trump’s unpredictability and Erdoğan’s regional ambitions adding to the volatility, the Ankara summit may well determine whether NATO emerges stronger—or fractures under the weight of its divisions.

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